The Carnival is Back in Town: D3 Boys Tiffin Preview

Tiffin Carnival
Steve Statman

 

Preview for the Boys D3 Race at Tiffin this weekend with the top 10 predicted teams.

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1. Bellaire Saint John Central: 

With one race posted and a close victory over Saint Thomas Aquinas, the Irish seem to have the components to win the 2008 Carnival.  Foster and Holubeck can both break 17:00 (only Delta and Styker have done this on the super quick Columbus Grove course)and this typically scores under 20 points a piece.  BSJ will win because runners 3-5 will break 17:30 and net a grand total of 50 per runner.  When you score under 200 points at Tiffin, you’re in a great position to win.  The Irish take the meet away from the #2 ranked Russia squad because their 1 (and maybe 2) beat Russia’s #1 Bornhorst.  While the pack of Mascato, Swartz, and Gully each edge out their counterparts from the Raiders.  It will be close, but I’ve got the Irish by 20.

 

2. Russia: 

Winners of the two posted meets (Milton Union and Greenville).  Raiders looked vulnerable to Grandview in week one.  Derek Bornhorst has been a solid #1 that will score very low.  Queener, York and Ball are solid 17:30’s that put a hurting on most teams 3-4 runners (2nd runner needs to be around 17:10 to be stronger).  What makes the Raiders the contenders is because of their 5th man being in tact and firmly under 17:50.  Not very many teams can boast a sub 18 5th man in the state right now.

 

3. New Bremen: 

2nd to Russia at Milton Union and winners at Delphos.  Has front two in Eilerman and Kremer that may dip under 17:00 and score under 25 a piece.  I think New Bremen may post about 200-210 points if their 5rth runner can close the gap to 4th Knapke.  To place well at Tiffin, your #5 HAS to be under 18:00 and if this is an attainable feat, look for a close finish to Russia.

 

4. Columbus Grandview: 

Look out for these superheroes.  A team that is running very well at the moment and gave a very talented Russia squad a run for its money at Milton Union.  The kryptonite for the Wildcats will be it 5th runner.  Grandview had the meet easily locked up had we scored 4 runners, however the gap from 4-5 was about a minute and will not cut it at the Carnival.  If Grandview can establish the final runner, look for them to take runner up position, if not, they will fall prey to the squad of Minster.

 

5. Minster: 

Pack attack.  No real front runners.  Placed 3rd at Greenville behind Russia and New Bremen.  Also placed 3rd at Milton Union behind Russia and Grandview.  Stechschulte could score some low points if he can break 17:00 and Olding could raise his stock with a breakthrough race.  I like the Wildcats to place well because of their solid pack 3-7.  If all 5 of them can run under 17:45, Minster easily jumps Grandview into 4th.  This is a tall order because runners 3-7 currently sit around 18:10.

 

6. East Canton: 

Only results show the hornets at a low key home meet where they took 1-2-3.  Some new faces have shown up in East Canton and Tiffin may show just how weak, or just how strong the Blue and Gold are.  Front Runner Gabe Henning could take top honors.  For EC to make it into the top 4, Chad Long needs to be posting the same times that he did at the end of last year.  This is a long shot and I’ll admit that I put EC here because of previous year’s results.

 

7. Bloomdale Elmwood: 

Used the same triangulation that I did for Delta and the Milton Union meet.  Bloomdale tied with Delta at Columbus Grove.  I’m putting the Royals ahead because I see Ryan Green running better then his last showing and I like that Elmwood has a 5th man that is 20 seconds better then delta’s (there could be 30-40 points in that time).

 

8. Delta: 

Incredible showing at Columbus Groove averaging 17:21 on a super speedway.  With a time like this, one would expect the Panthers to place much higher (and they might).  My calculations, however, show that they tied with Lehman Catholic and Lehman Catholic ran head to head with Russia, Grandview, and Minster.  I predicted a time of 18:05 for Delta at the Milton Union course, which means that I can’t place them any higher then 6th.  Delta looks very strong so early with incredible performances from some young characters.

 

9. New London: 

The only showing for the Wildcats came from the Dan Olien Invitational, were they averaged an 18:09 per runner and finished a close second to DII strong horse Elyria Catholic.  There is only about a minute spread from 1-5 and that is a necessity when running at the Carnival.  No conclusive evidence that New London will place much higher than 9th when it appears that runners 4 and 5 will be at about 18:00

 

10. Gorham Fayette: 

A young sophomore class leads the team from Gorham Fayette.  After finishing second in the Gray Division at the Columbus Grove Invitational.  Gorham Fayette, with their average time of 17:58, will look to show that they deserve to be considered for a spot in the OATCCC Coaches’ Poll.