Division 1 Regional Preview

As a coach and athlete in the state of Ohio, I have spent many years trying to learn who I would be going up against at big races. I wanted to know how each person ran and what were their strengths and weaknesses. I would often do my own little meet previews where I would scour the internet for any resources I could find to help me on my quest. I have decided that as an author on this site it would be nice to provide the members and nonmembers alike with a peek at this weekend's races. I will preface these insights by saying that I do not necessarily think the exact order will be what I put up here, but rather find it to be a statistical analysis of what some expectations may be like for this Saturday. I also do not use season PR's to determine athlete rankings, as I have found this to be a very inaccurate method of prediction. Instead I look at trends and averages, much like the course rating system, in order to determine a prediction. Please note that the times I have listed aren't necessarily what I think the times will be. I just have them used as a way to rank all the runners. I will be ranking top 6 teams as well as top 25 individuals, as this will give the best look at which teams and individuals will have a shot at making it to state. I hope to get some comments going as well, because discussion makes it more fun for everyone!

 

Region 1 Boys

# Team Score 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 Boardman 81 1 8 12 15 45 - -
2 Chardon 121 6 13 16 21 65 - -
3 Louisville 145 19 22 23 39 42 - -
4 Lake-Uniontown 162 7 24 29 47 55 - -
5 GlenOak 164 26 32 33 35 38 - -
6 Mentor 200 17 36 40 41 66 - -

 

  Place Athlete Yr Team Time Points
  1 Mark Hadley 12 Boardman 15:25.1 1
  2 Garrett Crichlow 12 Twinsburg 15:54 2
  3 Kyle Mau 11 Hudson 15:55.2 3
  4 Kevin Blank 12 Solon 16:02.4 4
  5 Ryan Sullivan 12 Howland 16:10.9 5
  6 Nick Elswick 12 Chardon 16:12 6
  7 Jacob Kernell 11 Lake-Uniontown 16:12.2 7
  8 Alan Burns 12 Boardman 16:17.8 8
  9 Patrick Ferguson 12 Tallmadge 16:24.1 9
  10 Kevin White 11 Wooster 16:25.6 10
  11 Gavin Gaynor 10 Hudson 16:31.1 11
  12 Nathan Hadley 10 Boardman 16:31.9 12
  13 Josh Sopchak 11 Chardon 16:32.3 13
  14 Nick Schank 12 Twinsburg 16:36.9 14
  15 Justin Maroni 12 Boardman 16:41 15
  16 Adam Sopchak 12 Chardon 16:42.1 16
  17 Joe Polakowski 10 Mentor 16:42.3 17
  18 Brandon Green 12 North-Eastlake 16:44.2 18
  19 Nick Thomas 12 Louisville 16:49.2 19
  20 Harrison Hollon 11 Hoover 16:49.8 20
  21 Steven Zombory 11 Chardon 16:52.2 21
  22 Nick Chaplick 9 Louisville 16:52.2 22
  23 Noah Chaplick 9 Louisville 16:52.6 23
  24 Spencer Wirick 11 Lake-Uniontown 16:52.9 24

 

 

25 Ben Hyde 12 Massillon-Jackson 16:53.4  

For this region I anticpate that you will safely see Boardman and Chardon make it out. I believe Hadley takes the individual title as one of the top contenders in the state for the individual crown, while Nick Elswick helps his team even not at full strength. Once you get beyond that it is rather interesting, as a combination of who has a bad day and who steps up (especially numbers 5 and 6) will help determine that last spot. Don't count out Twinsburg either, as Crichlow will bring in a low card that could prove the difference. 

 

Region 2 Boys

 

# Team Score 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 St. Ignatius 152 7 20 36 42 47 - -
2 Ashland HS 163 24 28 31 34 46 - -
3 St. Francis De Sales-Toledo 169 11 18 39 50 51 - -
4 St. John's Jesuit 192 1 19 25 70 77 - -
5 Strongsville 207 21 29 41 56 60 - -
6 Avon 218 12 26 27 61 92 - -
  Place Athlete Yr Team Time Points
  1 Tevin Brown 11 St. John's Jesuit 16:10.5 1
  2 Brandon Gibson 12 Columbian 16:13.3 2
  3 Louis Pablo Guardiola 12 Fremont Ross 16:17.8 3
  4 Tyler Lewis 12 Columbian 16:21.4 4
  5 Colin Theis 10 Buckeye 16:23 5
  6 George Mccartney 11 Toledo Central Catholic 16:24.6 6
  7 Luke Wagner 10 St. Ignatius 16:26.3 7
  8 Dylan Dombi 12 Medina 16:29.9 8
  9 Isaiah Gaines 10 Findlay 16:37.1 9
  10 Nick Boatman 12 Lakewood 16:39.1 10
  11 Daniel Siebenaller 12 St. Francis De Sales-Toledo 16:39.9 11
  12 Austin Fasciana 12 Avon 16:41.8 12
  13 Quentin Howell 12 Norwalk 16:41.9 13
  14 Justin Reynolds 12 Rocky River 16:47.1 14
  15 Kohl Taberner 12 Springfield-Holland 16:47.4 15
  16 Andrew Bayes 12 Perrysburg High School 16:49.2 16
  17 Tim Villari 12 Avon Lake 16:49.8 17
  18 David St. John 11 St. Francis De Sales-Toledo 16:50.1 18
  19 Nick Jarrel 11 St. John's Jesuit 16:50.3 19
  20 Elliot Thorkelson 12 St. Ignatius 16:50.9 20
  21 Tim Doyle 11 Strongsville 16:55.7 21
  22 Chris Gates 12 Columbian 16:56.2 22
  23 Tyler Edmonds 12 Fremont Ross 16:56.3 23
  24 Leif Mcfrederick 11 Ashland HS 16:57.4 24
  25 Jake Barnes 10 St. John's Jesuit 16:58.2 25

In region 2 I believe the favorite is St. Ignatius due to their strength up front and with their 5th. They should have plenty of competition, as Ashland has a very strong pack mentality and Desales is within striking distance. I Like St. John's to claim the fourth qualifying spot based upon the fact they should bring in the one card based on my simulation. Teams like Avon, Strongsville and even Medina could sneak in there to grab that last spot should the 5th for St. John's falter.

 

Region 3 Boys

# Team Score 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 Dublin Jerome 62 2 5 7 10 38 - -
2 Hilliard Davidson 63 4 6 14 18 21 - -
3 Lancaster 155 11 23 24 48 49 - -
4 Olentangy Liberty 158 3 28 34 46 47 - -
5 Dublin Coffman 192 16 25 40 43 68 - -
6 New Albany 201 15 22 42 59 63 - -

 

  Place Athlete Yr Team Time Points
  1 Toby Hardwick 12 Newark 15:43 1
  2 Jake Mandel 12 Dublin Jerome 15:44.8 2
  3 Andrew Johnston 12 Olentangy Liberty 15:51 3
  4 Colin Burdette 11 Hilliard Davidson 15:52.6 4
  5 Mitch Leitch 12 Dublin Jerome 15:54.1 5
  6 Garrett Knapik 12 Hilliard Davidson 15:54.6 6
  7 Chase Stewart 12 Dublin Jerome 15:57.9 7
  8 Seth Farmer 11 Westland 15:58.2 8
  9 Eric Mccabe 12 Hilliard Bradley 16:04.4 9
  10 Bradley Davis 10 Dublin Jerome 16:10.8 10
  11 Adam Wise 12 Lancaster 16:20.4 11
  12 Zach Zimmerman 11 Pickerington North 16:21.4 12
  13 Daniel Reynolds 10 Hilliard Darby 16:22.7 13
  14 Luke Hoover 11 Hilliard Davidson 16:23.3 14
  15 Zack Buck 11 New Albany 16:25.4 15
  16 Zach Bons 11 Dublin Coffman 16:25.9 16
  17 Zach Emptage 10 Thomas Worthington 16:26.8 17
  18 Luke Hoover 11 Hilliard Davidson 16:27.0 18
  19 Seth Farmer 11 Westland 16:27.9 19
  20 Chase Hampton 11 Hilliard Darby 16:31.6 20
  21 Johnny McKeown 11 Hilliard Davidson 16:32.3 21
  22 Dennis Maloney 11 New Albany 16:33.1 22
  23 Stephen Sparks 12 Lancaster 16:33.5 23
  24 Nick Weaver 12 Lancaster 16:38.2 24
  25 John Graf 10 Dublin Coffman 16:39.8 25

In region 3 I expect to see 5 teams race for 4 spots. I could see Coffman maybe sneak up there, but it would take a good race to displace the other 5. I think the team title could be closer than people expect, as Davidson is running better lately. I still expect Jerome to win, but the individual title is going to be a tough race between Mandel, Hardwick, Johnston, and Burdette. Should be a great race to watch and a nailbiter for a couple teams trying to get out.

 

Region 4 Boys

# Team Score 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 St. Xavier 31 1 2 3 11 14 - -
2 Mason 93 4 8 17 27 37 - -
3 Centerville 161 9 20 23 48 61 - -
4 Beavercreek 169 10 13 34 43 69 - -
5 Elder 218 25 33 40 46 74 - -
6 Sycamore 233 24 30 53 58 68 - -
  Place Athlete Yr Team Time Points
  1 Michael Hall 12 St. Xavier 15:26 1
  2 Evan Stifel 12 St. Xavier 15:36.9 2
  3 Michael Vitucci 11 St. Xavier 15:56.1 3
  4 Nick Grismer 11 Mason 15:56.3 4
  5 Ben Call 12 Lakota East 15:57.4 5
  6 Jacob Brumfield 12 Vandalia-Butler 16:06.8 6
  7 J.t Mackay 11 Northmont 16:07.4 7
  8 Tom Clark 12 Mason 16:11.2 8
  9 Ryan Larkin 12 Centerville 16:12.1 9
  10 Ben Ewert 9 Beavercreek 16:12.2 10
  11 Cole Grabowski 11 St. Xavier 16:12.6 11
  12 Andrew Schille 12 Oak Hills 16:12.9 12
  13 Harish Prabhakaran 11 Beavercreek 16:16 13
  14 Brad Eagan 11 St. Xavier 16:16.4 14
  15 Stephen Jones 10 Troy 16:18.4 15
  16 Jax Talbot 12 St. Xavier 16:19.9 16
  17 Zac Thompson 12 Mason 16:22.1 17
  18 Andrew Lake 12 Kings 16:29.4 18
  19 Branden Nosker 12 Troy 16:30.8 19
  20 Sam Williams 12 Centerville 16:34.0 20
  21 Brad Miller 12 Bellbrook 16:36.5 21
  22 Brandon Mullins 11 Princeton 16:37.0 22
  23 Jimmy Barton 11 Centerville 16:37.7 23
  24 Jacob Belcher 12 Sycamore 16:43.9 24
  25 Jonathan Reiter 12 Elder 16:45.5 25

This region features the top team in the state in St. Xavier and another top 5 contender in Mason. Those two should be locks to run again at National Trails. St. X also has a shot at breaking their own record for least amount of points scored at the Region 4 meet. I see two from Cincinnati and two from Dayton making state, as Beavercreek and Centerville have been neck-and-neck the last couple of weeks. Elder is also a contender for the last spot, along with Sycamore and Kings. Invidually it looks to be Michael Hall as the favorite for individual title followed by Stifel and Vitucci.

 

Region 1 Girls

 

# Team Score 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 Nordonia 147 5 13 33 35 61 - -
2 GlenOak 167 7 22 37 45 56 - -
3 Boardman 218 2 39 51 54 72 - -
4 Walsh Jesuit 220 4 18 47 64 87 - -
5 Chardon 252 3 21 31 89 108 - -
6 Massillon-Perry 265 41 43 52 58 71 - -

 

  Place Athlete Yr Team Time Points
  1 Louiza Wise 10 Solon 19:06.1 1
  2 Jordan Grantonic 11 Boardman 19:31.0 2
  3 Samantha Stansbury 11 Chardon 19:31.1 3
  4 Melinda Renuart 12 Walsh Jesuit 19:39.5 4
  5 Leah Vasarhelyi 11 Nordonia 19:43.3 5
  6 Olivia Cook 12 Brecksville-Broadview Heights 19:45.6 6
  7 Hannah Thompson 11 GlenOak 19:46.1 7
  8 Karen Barrientos 12 Lakeside 19:51.6 8
  9 Geneva Sandridge 11 Solon 19:51.6 9
  10 Morgan Bing 12 Hoover 19:51.7 10
  11 Brin Stralka 9 Tallmadge 19:55.7 11
  12 Maggie Wagner 9 Saint Joseph Academy 19:56.9 12
  13 Heather Ross 11 Nordonia 19:58.9 13
  14 Kinsey Robinson 11 Mentor 19:59.7 14
  15 Chloe Binczyk 12 Shaker Heights 19:59.8 15
  16 Carissa Jenkins 12 Austintown Fitch 20:02.2 16
  17 Greta Taylor 10 Massillon-Jackson 20:02.3 17
  18 Molly Onders 10 Walsh Jesuit 20:07.8 18
  19 Katie Durisin 10 Riverside-Painesville 20:08.3 19
  20 Laura Tweedie 12 Lake-Uniontown 20:08.8 20
  21 Rachel Banks 10 Chardon 20:09.2 21
  22 Grace Werren 9 GlenOak 20:10.4 22
  23 Sydney Lautzenheiser 12 Hoover 20:11.9 23
  24 Grace Taylor 12 Massillon-Jackson 20:13.3 24
  25 Katie Fobean 12 Stow-Munroe Falls 20:16.0 25

This race looks to be tight for the last qualifying spot. It could come down to a displace for the last opportunity, because there are tons of variables in this race, especially with the amount of individuals. This region had quite a few individuals not on qualifying teams, so it will be hard as a spectator to determine how many points you are really scoring. In the end I still like Nordonia, Glenoak, Boardman and Walsh, but Chardon, Massillon-Perry, and Mentor could sneak in there as well. Individually this Region looks to be Wise's to lose. She has been very consistent and is coming off a district win. 

 

Region 2 Girls

 

# Team Score 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 Perrysburg High School 59 3 5 14 16 21 - -
2 Clay-Oregon 79 1 2 18 19 39 - -
3 Brunswick 112 4 15 24 26 43 - -
4 Notre Dame Academy 211 9 29 49 59 65 - -
5 Rocky River 224 13 48 50 53 60 - -
6 Medina 256 17 36 63 68 72 - -
  Place Athlete Yr Team Time Points
  1 Erin Gyurke 12 Clay-Oregon 18:38.2 1
  2 Haley Hess 10 Clay-Oregon 19:02.5 2
  3 Taylor Monheim 12 Perrysburg High School 19:20.8 3
  4 Vanessa Pasadyn 10 Brunswick 19:30.2 4
  5 Courtney Clody 12 Perrysburg High School 19:30.3 5
  6 Emily Stahl 11 Findlay 19:30.9 6
  7 Alex Wainstein 12 Sylvania Southview 19:36.3 7
  8 Alexis Szivan 11 Amherst Steele 19:39.6 8
  9 Stephanie Sherman 10 Notre Dame Academy 19:42.0 9
  10 Allie Zofkie 9 Wapakoneta 19:52.8 10
  11 Sydnie Fetherolf 12 Norwalk 19:53.3 11
  12 Abbigail Dorn 10 Whitmer 19:54.4 12
  13 Anna Brandt 9 Rocky River 20:02.3 13
  14 Jordan Doore 11 Perrysburg High School 20:04.0 14
  15 Rebecca Craddock 9 Brunswick 20:06.3 15
  16 Katie Menke 10 Perrysburg High School 20:06.5 16
  17 Maria Scavuzzo 12 Medina 20:09.1 17
  18 Sydney Hess 9 Clay-Oregon 20:12.4 18
  19 Hannah Hess 10 Clay-Oregon 20:16.3 19
  20 Sasha Lanning 11 Bowling Green High School 20:19.8 20
  21 Emily Henry 11 Perrysburg High School 20:20.9 21
  22 Lindsey Scarton 9 Berea-Midpark High School 20:21.8 22
  23 Lauren Difrancisco 11 North Royalton 20:24.5 23
  24 Kristine Camper 12 Brunswick 20:25.7 24
  25 Miranda DiBiasio 12 Berea-Midpark High School 20:29.2 25

This region has a couple very strong teams up front in Perrysburg and Clay. I feel pretty safe calling Brunswick a lock as well. Once you get beyond that, it gets a little dicey. A couple of historically good programs look to continue that trend after that as NDA and Rocky River look to be the next most logical choices. Don't count out Medina, North Royalton and Berea as well, as they are trending up right now. Individually I think Erin Gyurke should win going away. She is one of the top individuals in the state and has a legitimate shot at a podium finish in Columbus. Spots 3-8 ought to be very interesting and a couple points either way could sway some team results.

 

Region 3 Girls

 

# Team Score 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 Upper Arlington 93 3 9 14 28 39 - -
2 Hilliard Davidson 109 1 11 26 34 37 - -
3 Gahanna Lincoln 139 8 18 23 40 50 - -
4 Thomas Worthington 163 12 30 32 38 51 - -
5 Dublin Scioto 251 27 33 44 70 77 - -
6 Olentangy Liberty 275 4 35 68 72 96 - -

 

  Place Athlete Yr Team Time Points
  1 Lilly Saniel-banrey 11 Hilliard Davidson 18:56.5 1
  2 Heather Sandvik 11 Westerville North 18:57.2 2
  3 Anne Heuerman 10 Upper Arlington 18:57.4 3
  4 Claire Wiles 11 Olentangy Liberty 19:03.8 4
  5 Carly Davis 10 Dublin Jerome 19:06 5
  6 Leah Wallace 11 Reynoldsburg 19:07.1 6
  7 Eliza Matt 12 New Albany 19:09 7
  8 Kelsey Sandlin 11 Gahanna Lincoln 19:16.2 8
  9 Dorrian Jaffe 12 Upper Arlington 19:19.3 9
  10 Josie Woosley 11 Watkins Memorial 19:21.2 10
  11 Jane Onders 10 Hilliard Davidson 19:34.3 11
  12 Christina Nash 9 Thomas Worthington 19:43.0 12
  13 Emily Stoodley 11 Worthington Kilbourne 19:45 13
  14 Megan Brewer 11 Upper Arlington 19:48.9 14
  15 Haley Sandvik 11 Westerville North 20:01.0 15
  16 Dana Roberts 12 Westerville Central 20:02.4 16
  17 Jessica Passwater 11 Bishop Watterson 20:04.9 17
  18 Ally Wharton 9 Gahanna Lincoln 20:06.4 18
  19 Tes Corea 11 Hilliard Bradley 20:09.9 19
  20 Meghan Connors 10 Bishop Watterson 20:11.7 20
  21 Tarike Osuobeni 11 Westerville Central 20:13.0 21
  22 Alaina Spears 12 Tri-Valley 20:15.5 22
  23 Rylee Tanner 11 Gahanna Lincoln 20:16.3 23
  24 Stephanie Gase 12 Pickerington Central 20:16.3 24
  25 Sana Qamar 10 Dublin Coffman 20:17.2 25

I predict this is going to be the best individual race of the Division 1 Regional weekend. There are probably up to 8 girls that could win the individual title on any given day, which should make the team race all the more interesting. Hilliard Davidson and Upper Arlington should duke it out for the team title. It looks like 4 teams have separated themselves from the pack over the course of the season, with a big dropoff after 4. However this is that postseason time and anything can happen. Don't be surprised if a few unforeseen changes take place on race day. It should be an exciting race to see who runs in Hebron.

 

Region 4 Girls

 

# Team Score 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 Mason 101 10 14 21 27 29 - -
2 Centerville 103 9 16 19 20 39 - -
3 Springboro 172 11 28 33 49 51 - -
4 Walnut Hills 177 5 37 42 43 50 - -
5 Beavercreek 181 25 26 34 41 55 - -
6 Mother of Mercy 216 3 32 53 60 68 - -

 

  Place Athlete Yr Team Time Points
  1 Annie Heffernan 11 St. Ursula Academy-Cincinnati 18:00.9 1
  2 Jacquelyn Crow 12 Lebanon 18:36 2
  3 Emma Hatch 12 Mother of Mercy 18:37 3
  4 Christine Frederick 12 Ursuline Academy 18:38.3 4
  5 Olivia Connaughton 9 Walnut Hills 18:51.3 5
  6 Abbie VanFossen 11 Lakota East 18:59.7 6
  7 Cara Schildmeyer 10 Anderson 19:06.6 7
  8 Emma Bryant 9 Vandalia-Butler 19:08.0 8
  9 Lainey Studebaker 10 Centerville 19:09.2 9
  10 Leah Ford 10 Mason 19:13.9 10
  11 Aundrea Busse 12 Springboro 19:15.8 11
  12 Catherine Finke 11 Ursuline Academy 19:16.4 12
  13 Mackenzie Johnson 12 Loveland 19:22.8 13
  14 Ellie Brush 9 Mason 19:25.3 14
  15 Jordan Townsley 12 Miamisburg 19:27.3 15
  16 Megan Quinlin 12 Centerville 19:29.1 16
  17 Lindsey Myers 12 Princeton 19:29.1 17
  18 Kelly Mcmanus 10 Lakota West 19:29.4 18
  19 Meredith Rintol 12 Centerville 19:37.5 19
  20 Meghan Harris 12 Centerville 19:39.1 20
  21 Ailee Henderson 9 Mason 19:39.9 21
  22 Kayla Parker 9 Bellbrook 19:41.8 22
  23 Rosie Menyhert 11 Sycamore 19:43.2 23
  24 Hannah Tobler 11 Colerain 19:44.1 24
  25 Danielle Beranek 12 Beavercreek 19:45.9 25

This region is nothing short of stacked. Seven of the top 11 teams in the poll will be competing here, including the top four teams in the final regular season poll. It also features the defending state champion and the current Division 1 leader for girls. They have packed as much talent as a state meet into a regional and it should make for some tight, hard fought finishes. I expect Mason and Centerville to duke it out for the team title. Mason has the slight edge right now, but I believe Centerville will give them everything they can handle. It would be easy to pick chalk, but I like Walnut Hills in the slight upset over Beavercreek due to the front runner being a little further up. In this race it could easily come down to tiebreakers. Individually, Annie Heffernan would have to be the favorite, but at this time last year Jacquelyn Crow took second at regional and first at state. Either way there are some very tough individuals out there, and it should be a great race to watch.