Ohio State Meet Preview: How Low Can Caleb Brown Go?

Division 1 - Will Nathan Mountain Pull Off The Upset? 

Boys

St. Xavier is the favorite to pull in the team tile in Division I, but their top runner, Region 4 winner Nathan Mountain, appears to be rounding into winning form as we head into the grand finale and could be ready to secure an individual title.

There are a couple of national talents in his way, though. Namely, Ohio's second fastest runner Pickerington North senior Matt Duvall. 

Duvall enters the state championships as one of only two boys in Ohio with a sub-15:00 performance this season. His 14:57.90 from the Les Eisenhart Invite earlier this month is behind only Caleb Brown's 14:51 mark in the state and has him 41st in the country. Based on season averages, Duvall has an edge as he enters with a 15:23.60 average over eight races. His slowest mark this year? 15:46.10 to open the season on August 24th. He coasted to victory on Saturday over his biggest state meet competition. 

Dublin Jerome's Elliott Cook and Worthington Kilbourne's Tanner Williams sit second and third in the state based on season averages, but it's Cook's 15:01.40 that is the only individual performance within 4 seconds of Duvall's season best. Cook finished 16 seconds behind Duvall Saturday, but has shown that he has the talent to hang with anyone in the state. Williams will be heading into the weekend for his eleventh race of the season. In the ten in which he has competed the season, he's posted a best of 15:17.70 and average mark of 15:40.36. He was fourth in Region 3 behind both Duvall and Cook, but will also be one to watch on Saturday.

There are too many contenders to write about all of them, but some of the other names for which to watch on Saturday include: Nathan Moore, Justin Iler, Zubin Jha, Harper Moore, Alex Dediu, and Mitchell Dunham.

As previously mentioned, St. Xavier appears to be the favorite for the team title. They will have to hold off challenges from Kenston, Hudson, Mason, Olentangy Orange, Gahanna Lincoln, Pickerington North and Ashland, among others. Kyle's predictions:

Individuals

1. Matt Duvall

2. Elliott Cook

3. Nathan Mountain

4. Justin Iler

5. Nathan Moore

Teams

1. St. Xavier

2. Hudson

3. Mason

4. Pickerington North

5. Olentangy Orange 

Girls

It's a question we'll pose when we come to the Division 3 discussion, as well, but it also fits for the purposes of this race: Can anyone stop Taylor Ewert? 

The all-state, state champion, all-American, and national champion from Beavercreek, enters the Division 1 State Championship with a healthy advantage based on average time. Her season best stands at 17:03.13, 6 seconds off of her 16:57 career best from last season, and she boasts an average of 17:13.51 over five 5K races. The next closest season best belongs to Centerville's Emma Bucher (17:26.30), but the next closest average (also from Bucher) is 17:55.73, and she hasn't raced since September 24th and unfortunately won't be in attendance on Saturday. 

Ewert more than likely has been taking it easy this season in terms of volume with the national meets on her horizon. It's hard to imagine that she is looking past the state meet to the national qualifying meets, but based on her performances so far this season - combined with her experience at this meet over her career - it would be stunning to see Ewert fall on Saturday.

If anyone is up for the upset challenge, it may be Ewert's teammate Savannah Roark. Roark boasts a 17:55 average in her five 5K's and posted a 16:56.30 3 Mile time en route to her impressive victory at the McQuaid Invitational. If Beavercreek can go 1-2 on Saturday, they could lock up the victory before the first 10 girls cross the line, especially if 2 of those other top 10 are Jodie Pierce and Juliann Williams.

Eleven girls lining up in the Division 1 race on Saturday have posted sub-18:00 marks with Beavercreek boasting two of those. Daniella Santos, Faith Duncan, Lindsay Stull, Lauryn Mick, Savannah Dennison, Hannah Doerger, Juliette Keller, Sofia Istnick, and Maddie Ullom all will be battling it out for a top 10 spot in an incredibly deep field. 

Beavercreek could put four girls in the top fifteen, if not the top ten on Saturday, but it'll be up to number five runner Kendall Hobbs to help them secure the win. With such a low score from their top four, it might not take much from Hobbs to help her squad to the top of the podium. Hilliard Davidson, Lakota East, St. Joseph, Mason, Springboro, and Medina will all be in the mix trying to take down the nationally ranked squad. Kyle's predictions:

Individuals

1. Taylor Ewert

2. Savannah Roark

3. Juliette Keller

4. Lindsay Stull

5. Lauryn Mick

Teams

1. Beavercreek

2. Hilliard Davidson

3. Lakota East

4. Mason

5. Medina