Division 2 - How Low Will Caleb Brown Go?
Boys
Shelby senior Caleb Brown has been out of this world this season, solidifying himself as not only the best in the entire state in 2019, but one of the best to ever to do it in Ohio.
On Saturday, he could have a chance to make history on the Hebron course and pad his legacy as one of Ohio's best ever.
Brown's senior cross country season has been unprecedented. His season average of 15:02.94 in six races is stunning and shows that no matter the day, no matter the course, his engine will still run hot enough to hold off any challengers in a time within the top 100 in the entire country. In fact, if it wasn't for a 15:18 opener on August 24th, his average would come in under 15:00 with three performances under the mark and two others under 15:10. Long story short, we don't see anyone beating him Saturday, not even Defiance's Mhalicki Bronson, and would not be shocked to see him break the Division 2 overall and National Trail Raceway course record. The overall record stands at 15:01.90 from Michael Brajdic in 2010 and the Hebron course record (in Division 2) is Joseph Bistritz's 15:16.09 (2015). This week's weather may have softened the course, but with perfect running weather on Saturday, don't blink because you might miss the D2 race.
As mentioned, Bronson is Brown's biggest challenger with his 15:00.30 season best. His season average of 15:26.64 is impressive in its own right, but sits well behind Brown. He was also 10 seconds behind the Shelby senior in Region 6 Saturday. Galion's Braxton Tate, Sheridan's William Wilke, and Heath's Xavier Foehl all boast season averages between 15:52-15:59, but that is well behind the top two. Look for a chase pack of about six to fight for those final spots in the top five throughout this race.
In the team race, Woodridge has been showing out all season and is looking like a heavy favorite heading into Saturday. The only team in the state with five boys under 16:00, Woodridge could put five through the chute before anyone gets three. Defiance, Unioto, Madeira, Heath, and Carroll all will more than likely be settling for one of the next five spots in the standings with Waverly, a seventh place finisher in Region 7, but highly ranked squad based on season bests, looking to get back into the mix. Kyle's predictions:
Individuals
1. Caleb Brown
2. Mhalicki Bronson
3. Braxton Tate
4. William Wilke
5. Aidan Judd
Teams
1. Woodridge
2. Defiance
3. Unioto
4. Carroll
5. Heath
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On paper, the girls Division 2 race looks extremely close between upwards of seven girls. When diving deeper, a clear frontrunner emerges in the form of Oakwood's Grace Hartman.
Hartman not only boasts the best mark of the season among Division 2 runners (17:31.10 at the Saturday Night Lights), but is the season average that really separates her from the pack. At 18:03.16 over seven races this year, Hartman has shown she has the wheels and the chops to compete with anyone in the division and the sophomore should be considered the one to beat after finishing second in 2018.
The reigning state champion returns to defend her crown and fend off Hartman for the second straight season. Junior Ella Gilson (Hawken) is the second fastest girl in Division 2 based on season best and average. She was 10 seconds back of Hartman at Saturday Night Lights and sits 17 seconds back based on averages. None of that matters though. What matters is who shows up on the day and as the reigning state champion, Gilson will not be counted out until they have both crossed the finish line on Saturday.
Other individuals to watch in this one include Halle Hamilton, Reilly Zink, Lily Weeks, Theresa Hagey, Elizabeth Vaughn, Chloe Dawson, and Abby Lesniak.
Speaking of defending champions, Lexington, coming off a massive 70 point victory in 2018, appears to be the favorite again in 2019.
Led by the aforementioned Hamilton and Weeks, the ladies sit comfortably ahead of second-ranked Granville based on season best times. If they can put their top three in the top fifteen with Joanna Halfhill, much like Woodridge in the boys race, this race could be over very early on. When looking at season averages, Granville makes it much closer, but it will be hard to compete with the top three punch from Lexington on the day.
The field spreads out quite noticeably after those first two teams with Akron St. Vincent-St. Mary, Ontario, and Indian Hill all coming in closest to Lexington and Granville, but not close enough in our virtual meets to warrant consideration in any circumstance other than a major upset. Look for Lexington to defend their Division 2 crown on Saturday. Kyle's predictions:
Individuals
1. Grace Hartman
2. Ella Gilson
3. Reilly Zink
4. Halle Hamilton
5. Theresa Hagey
Teams
1. Lexington
2. Granville
3. Ontario
4. Akron SVSM
5. Indian Hill